Canadian Economy Outlook Канада


Canadian Farming Forecast Suggests Continued Positive Economic Outlook

News Release

Today, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released the 2020 Canadian Agricultural Outlook. The report provides a forecast of farm income in the agricultural sector for the previous and current calendar years (2020 and 2020), and looks ahead to longer term trends that could impact the agriculture sector.

February 17, 2020 — Ottawa, Ontario — Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Today, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released the 2020 Canadian Agricultural Outlook. The report provides a forecast of farm income in the agricultural sector for the previous and current calendar years (2020 and 2020), and looks ahead to longer term trends that could impact the agriculture sector.

In 2020 and 2020, Net Cash Income is forecast to see slight declines, but will remain above the 2011-2015 average. The primary driver of declining income is weakness in North American livestock markets as cattle and calf prices descend from record high levels observed in 2015. Crop receipts are expected to increase in both 2020 and 2020 due to strong marketings, or volumes marketed, of canola in 2020, and an overall increase in grain marketings in 2020 as the large crop harvested last fall works its way through the grain marketing system.

Most indicators suggest a continuing positive economic situation for the sector. A growing world population, increasing disposable incomes in developing nations and increasing trade in farm products present opportunities to further grow the Canadian agriculture sector.

Quotes

«Canada’s agriculture and agri-food industry is a key driver of the Canadian economy. The Government of Canada will support the continued growth of the sector by investing in research and innovation, working to open new markets around the world and collaborating with our provincial and territorial partners.”
Lawrence MacAulay, Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food

Quick Facts

Net cash income in 2020 is estimated to experience a modest 2% annual decline to $14.8 billion. A decline of 7% to $13.8 billion is expected in 2020, however 2020 and 2020 are still expected to be the second and fourth best years on record, respectively.

Livestock receipts in Canada are expected to decrease by 7% in 2020 to $23.9 billion as a result of downward pressure on North American red meat prices from growing meat supplies in the U.S. with a further decline of 4% for 2020.

Crop receipts are expected to increase 2% to $32.6 billion in 2020, and increase by a further 1% to $32.9 billion in 2020.

With lower market receipts anticipated in both forecast years, program payments are expected to make up some of the shortfall, increasing by 24% in 2020 to $2.6 billion, and by a further 22% in 2020 to reach $3.2 billion.

Farm operating expenses are forecast to decline by about 1% in 2020, to $44.2 billion, and increase by 2% in 2020 to $45.1 billion.

The net worth of the average farm is expected to increase, reaching $2.8 million in 2020.

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Contacts

Guy Gallant
Director of Communications
Office of the Honourable Lawrence MacAulay
613-773-1059

Media Relations
Agriculture and Agri‑Food Canada
Ottawa, Ontario
613-773-7972
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Gloomy outlook for Canadian economy

“Not only was the headline contraction in December sizable, but the losses were broad-based across industries and exclusively seen in full-time positions” – Sonja Gulati, TD Bank economist

The last week was not so good for the Canadian economy, as all but one report surprised markets to the downside. Moreover, there have been a couple of very important data, including trade figures, Ivey PMI as well as building permits. Friday’s labour report was the last nail in the coffin that pushed USD/CAD to 1.0945, a level previously seen in October 2009.

The Canadian economy lost 45,900 jobs during December, pushing the overall jobless rate to 7.2%, the level which is 0.3% higher from the previous month’s reading. This also means the economy added only 102,000 new working places during the whole 2013. To be more precise, the land of the maple leaf lost 60,000 full-time jobs, and even a 14,000 gain in part-time jobs was not able to offset it. Another alarming sign, which does not suggest any bright future is the fact that younger generation continued to struggle in the labour market in December, as youth unemployment soared to 14%.

We have already mentioned that latest growth outlooks can be overoptimistic. Nonetheless, according to official figures, the economy should expand 2.3% this year. Despite this positive projection, many economists expect much weaker growth in Canada in 2014.

FOREX EU news, opinions, analyses, research, quotes, charts, or other information on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. FOREX EU will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.


GDP in Canada

Canada — GDP

Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) is the main measure for assessing the performance of Canada’s economy. Statistics Canada publishes GDP figures on an annual, quarterly and monthly basis. The table below shows the change of price-adjusted GDP for Canada, typically denoted as Canada’s economic growth rate. A more comprehensive assessment of Canadian GDP can be found below the table.

Canada — GDP Data

2013 2014 2015 2020 2020
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) 2.3 2.9 0.7 1.1 3.0

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Canada GDP Chart

Overview

Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the economic performance of a country over a given period, typically a year or a quarter. For this reason, it is the most significant economic indicator to assess a country’s economy (see our GDP page for more information on this indicator).

Canada’s GDP figures (Canadian economic accounts) are calculated by Statistics Canada based on the Canadian System of Macroeconomic Accounts (CSMA). At Statistics Canada’s website, data from 1981 onward are available.

Canadian GDP Growth Performance

From 1999 to 2008, Canada posted strong economic growth and GDP expanded 2.9% annually on average. Due to its close economic ties to the United States, in the crisis-year 2009 Canada’s economy contracted 2.7% over the previous year. Canada did manage to recover quickly from the impact of the crisis, however, thanks to sound pre-crisis fiscal policy, a solid financial system, a relatively robust external sector and the economic strength of its resource-rich western provinces. Since 2010, growth has picked up again and between 2010 and 2013 Canada’s economy expanded 1.4% per year on average.

Structure of Canadian Gross Domestic Product

Domestic demand represents the lion’s share of Canada’s GDP, with private and government consumption together accounting for broadly three-fourths of total GDP. Fixed investment is another main component of GDP. From 1980 to 2003, it represented broadly 19% of GDP on average, and during recent years the share of total GDP improved slightly to reach broadly 24% in 2013. From 1981 to 2007, positive net exports of between 2% and 9% made modest positive contributions to Canada’s economic growth. However, in recent years the country tallied negative net exports of around 2% of GDP as imports growth have outpaced exports growth since 2010.

Canada’s economy is dominated by the services industry, which accounts for approximately 70% of total economic activity and is led by real estate services, public administration, health care and social assistance as well as finance and insurance. Canada also has a relevant manufacturing sector that accounts for approximately 11% of GDP and is led by the fabrication of transport equipment and food production. Unlike most developed countries, the primary sector remains important for Canada’s economy; the oil and logging industries are the two most important. Oil products constitute Canada’s biggest single export commodity.

When are Canadian GDP Data Released?

Statistics Canada releases GDP data on an annual, quarterly and monthly basis. Annual, quarterly and monthly data are consistently linked. The annual GDP data are published together with the GDP reading for the fourth quarter. Both quarterly and monthly prints are released by Statistics Canada within 60 days of the reference period. For instance, the reading for the fourth quarter and the corresponding full year are published by late February or early March. Statistics Canada’s website provides a detailed release calendar that shows the next release dates for both quarterly and monthly GDP.

How are Canadian GDP Figures Computed?

Statistics Canada applies the income and expenditure approach to calculate annual and quarterly GDP data. For calculating annual and monthly GDP data, it uses the production approach. The income and expenditure approach measure aggregate economic activity in two different ways. While the income approach takes into account all incomes arising from production and thus represents the sum of all factor incomes that are generated by productive activity, the expenditure approach considers all expenditures on production or, in other words, the sum of all sales to final users. Due to the different estimation procedures, the two approaches can lead to different GDP estimates, causing a statistical discrepancy. Statistics Canada treats these discrepancies to obtain a consistent global GDP figure. The production approach, which is used to estimate monthly and annual GDP data, determines the value added of the final output in the economy less the intermediate inputs used up in the production process. This value is further adjusted by adding taxes and subtracting subsidies on products.

How Accurate are Canadian GDP Numbers?

Statistics Canada publishes a first estimate of GDP data two months after the respective reference period in order to provide timely and up-to-date information. This first release is generally subject to a subsequent revision process that allows integration of the most recent information on new surveys, taxation data, public accounts, consensuses, updates to benchmark data, etc. Quarterly GDP data are generally revised during the first quarter of the year, covering data up to three years back. Monthly data are generally revised up to a year and a half back. Unless historical revisions are undertaken, which usually are done once per decade, data are usually not revised again. 2012 was the last time Statistics Canada released a historical revision of GDP data dating up to 30 years prior in order to take into account new international standards. According to Statistics Canada, the monthly GDP data are generally less reliable than the annual GDP data as less information is available to estimate them.

Why are Canadian GDP Data Important?

GDP growth is commonly considered as the most vital indicator to assess a country’s economic performance. Economic growth, which is calculated as the rate of change of the real GDP, is the best measure to assess an economy’s development. Above all, it is useful for short-term analysis. In addition to the headline GDP growth figure, the GDP report contains important information that provides an exhaustive view on the state of the Canadian economy. Canada is the eleventh largest economy in the world and forms part of the G7, therefore Canadian GDP growth data have a remarkable impact in the global market and are closely watched.

Where Can I Get Forecasts for Canada’s GDP?

Many sources provide forecasts for Canadian GDP growth. The government, banks, consultancies and think tanks closely watch the Canadian economy and keep their projections for Canadian GDP growth up-to-date. FocusEconomics gathers more than 20 different forecasts on Canadian GDP and provides an average (Consensus Forecast) from the economists surveyed. This collection gives you a comprehensive overview on Canada’s future GDP growth rates as well as the minimum and maximum projections for Canadian GDP growth.


Forecasts for Canada’s GDP growth are contained in the monthly FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast for Canada and the monthly Major Economies (G7 and BRIC) report. All reports are available both on an ad-hoc basis and via an annual subscription (including optional Excel support). Download a free sample or purchase the report directly via our Online Store. The report is available immediately after purchase.

Canada Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield 1.13 1.00 % Sep 03
Exchange Rate 1.32 0.15 % Sep 04
Stock Market 16,449 0.23 % Sep 04

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The Economy of Canada

Canada is one of the world’s richest nations, with a highly sophisticated economy and a top-tier standard of living. Though obviously not everyone in Canada is equally well-off, most Canadians nevertheless hold reasonably well-paying jobs and access to ample creature comforts that citizens in many other countries can only dream of.

A romanticized image of 19th century fur traders rolling into town.
Franklin Arbuckle (1909-2001), HCB Archives
Canadian Cars

An assembly line at a Chrysler automobile assembly plant in Windsor, Ontario (1953). Today, Canada helps build cars and trucks for a variety of global brands, including Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, and Fiat.

Economic History of Canada

Canada was basically founded as a money-making scheme. In the 17th century, when North America was first being colonized by the French and British, the northern half of the continent was considered an alluring place because of all the furry woodland creatures it contained, since beautiful, glossy furs were one of the most desired possessions of wealthy Europeans of the time. For centuries, the early Canadian colonies thrived under a simple economic system known as the fur trade, where hunters gathered and sold animal skins under the employment of large fur corporations — mostly the Hudson’s Bay Company — who then used their profits to purchase land and build trading posts in new areas where even more fur could be found.

As they moved west from the St. Lawerence River region, European settlers discovered Canada was full of lots of other things they could harvest and sell too, including lumber, fish, coal, iron, and gold. The development of farms in arable regions, meanwhile, yielded ample harvests of wheat and other grains as well as meat and dairy products from raising livestock. Originally, much of Canada’s resource bounty was sold to Britain and France, the colonial rulers. But as the years went on, it soon became more logical and profitable for Canada to do most of its trade with the United States — which was considerably closer — or simply among cities and provinces within Canada itself.

The industrial revolution of the late 19th and early 20th centuries introduced all sorts of exciting new machines to the world, and saw Canadians begin to develop a robust manufacturing sector, with giant factories able to transform raw natural resources into useful high-tech things like paper, cloth, steel, chemicals, and automobiles, while dams and derricks enabled the production of new commodities like hydroelectricity, oil, and natural gas. In the decades following World War II (1939-1945), the Canadian economy shifted dramatically once again as industrial profits were invested into higher wages and taxes, and social services. A growth of schools, particularly affordable colleges and universities, produced a more educated population able to pursue office work and largely abandon manual labour in factories and farms, while Canadian corporations sought larger profits by outsourcing manufacturing jobs to cheaper workers in poorer countries. By the dawn of the 21st century, Canada had become an integrated part of a thoroughly globalized economy in which Canadian workers now only produce goods and services that cannot be produced cheaper in some other country. This has made life more affordable for many Canadians, but has come at the cost of eliminating many traditional sources of Canadian employment.

Economy vs. Environment?

Northern Alberta contains enormous reserves of bitumen, a type of crude oil mixed with soil that can be used to make petroleum. Since the 1980s, Canada’s «oil sands» industry has grown to employ tends of thousands of Canadians, yet the industry is becoming increasingly controversial as concerns grow over the degree the harvest and use of oil affects climate change. The question of whether to build new oil pipelines to further expand the Canadian oil industry is one of Canada’s most controversial economic debates.

Canada’s Modern Economy and Industries

Having largely abandoned the country’s agricultural-manufacturing past, today upwards of 75 per cent of Canadians work in what is dubbed the service sector of the economy, while only a small minority still work in farms or factories. The service sector of the Canadian economy is extremely vast and diverse, and basically entails any sort of (mostly) non-physical work that deals with helping people, rather than making or growing things. Most Canadians who live in large cities like Toronto, Vancouver, or Montreal work in the service sector.

Within the service sector, the largest sub-sector is the trades, which are highly specialized, skill-based professions like electrician, carpenter, or computer repairman. Other large sub-sectors include health care, which includes doctors, nurses and surgeons, plus their clerks and assistants; finance, which includes bankers, stock brokers, and real-estate agents; education, which includes teachers, professors, librarians and administrators; and food and retail, which covers cooks, store clerks, and cashiers in places like shopping malls, restaurants, grocery stores, and other shops. Writers, artists, journalists, and entertainers are all considered service workers, too. Government or bureaucratic work has also become quite popular in recent decades, with the Canadian federal government now said to be the single largest employer in the country.

Canada’s few remaining farmers reside primarily in the Prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, where they continue to grow crops such as wheat, corn, and oilseed, as well as raise cattle and pigs for meat and dairy, just like their forefathers before them. In many parts of the country, a renewed interest in organic food is helping provide some Canadian farmers, particularly fruit and vegetable farmers, with a mini boom, but overall, Canadian agriculture remains very much an industry in decline.

Canadian manufacturing remains only slightly more lucrative, and still employs about two million workers, or about 13 per cent of the country’s total labour force. Like agriculture, it’s another industry highly concentrated in one part of the country, in this case the so-called “central Canadian region” of Ontario and Quebec, which together house more than 75 per cent of all Canadian manufacturing jobs. The most famous of these remain centred around Canada’s automotive sector, historically one of the leading symbols of Canada’s postwar economic boom, but now in steady decline as outsourcing and robotics lower the need for Canadian workers in this sector. In forest-rich British Columbia, the production of lumber and paper still dominates provincial manufacturing, while the production of food, chemicals, electronics, and other miscellaneous bits of machinery dominate in small communities elsewhere. As is the case with most western nations, much of what Canadians still manufacture in their own country consists of specialty products that are either too expensive or impractical to build overseas.

Shoppers pondering purchases at a Costco warehouse store in Hamilton, Ontario.
Alastair Wallace/Shutterstock
NAFTA and beyond

In 1988, the economies of Canada and the United States became even more deeply intertwined when the governments of the two countries signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The idea had been a controversial one in Canada for many years, with so-called «economic nationalists» arguing more trade with America would rob Canada of its political and economic independence. Today, the agreement is broadly popular, however, and supported by all political parties. In 1992, Mexico joined the arrangement, which became known as the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. In 2020, it was renegotiated into a revised deal known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, which was signed on November 30, 2020, seen here.

Trade and the United States

Trade comprises more than 65 per cent of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), making it one of the most trade-dependent countries in the world. Of this, upwards of 75 per cent of all Canadian trade is done exclusively with the United States, meaning the modern Canadian economy is extremely dependent upon, and integrated with, the economic happenings of America. So much so, in fact, that some economic analysts don’t think it’s even worth talking about “Canada” and the “United States” as two separate economic entities, so conjoined are their economies.


The most valuable goods Canada exports, or sells, to the United States are energy resources, namely oil, chemical fuels, electricity, and natural gas (many are surprised to learn that Canada, and not some country in the Middle East, is America’s biggest foreign source of oil). Most of Canada’s remaining exports to the U.S. are simply half-assembled products that are then completed in America. Half-assembled cars comprise a particularly large category, and Canada and the United States jointly operate the largest automobile manufacturing sector on Earth, based out of the Ontario-Michigan border region. From the U.S., Canada imports just about everything, including food, completed cars, chemicals, electronics, and tons of entertainment products like books, movies, and video games. Overall, Canada is the single biggest foreign consumer of American goods and the United States runs a large trade surplus with Canada — meaning Canadians buy a lot more from the United States than the United States buys from Canada.

Along with being the country’s biggest trade partner, the United States is also the single largest foreign investor in the Canadian economy, with around 50 per cent of all foreign direct investment in Canada held by Americans. Much of this investment takes the form of American corporations setting up shop in Canada. Cruise the streets of any major Canadian city and you’ll be greeted with an endless array of popular American chains, from McDonald’s to Starbucks to Wal-Mart, catering to Canadian customers. It’s not an entirely uncontroversial state of affairs; while American corporations provide millions of jobs for Canadians, critics argue the dominance of American companies in Canada hurts Canadian corporations and investors who have difficulty competing with Americans. The Canadian government does have rules that limit foreign ownership in certain industries deemed too important to trust to Americans (or any other foreigners, for that matter), including telecommunications, energy, national defence, and culture.

In addition to the United States, Canada currently has free trade agreements with much of Latin America (Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Panama, and Peru), middle eastern allies Israel and Jordan, and the four non-EU countries in Europe – Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland, though the amount of trade Canada does with these countries is quite small.

Tax Politics

Canada’s sales taxes have long been among the most contentious and unpopular political policies in modern Canada, and something Canadians never tire of complaining about. The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) by the government of Prime Minister Brian Mulroney (b. 1939) in 1991 helped poison his legacy and ruin his party, and all subsequent prime ministers have been elected, in part, on campaigns promising to lower it. Though not quite as radioactive, PSTs (provincial sales tax) and HSTs (harmonized sales tax) have ruined more than their share of political careers, too.

Taxes in Canada

Canadians like to complain about taxes, but compared to other major industrialized democracies, Canada’s rate of taxation is comparatively low. Total tax revenue in Canada represents about 32 per cent of the country’s GDP, compared to 36 per cent in Germany, 45 per cent in France and 47 per cent in Denmark. The bulk of the money Canadians give to their government is withdrawn through taxes on incomes and purchases, which are charged at both the national and provincial level.

Personal income taxes in Canada are progressive, which is to say, people pay a different rate depending on how much income they make. Federally, the bottom rate is 15 per cent and the top rate is 33 per cent, while at the provincial level most rates are (very roughly) half that. Corporations pay income tax too. The federal corporate tax rate is a flat 15% (10% for “small businesses”), one of the lowest rates in the world, while the provincial rates are, again, roughly half that. The bulk of income taxes Canadians pay are deducted automatically from their paycheques, along with other specialized taxes that are used to finance the Canadian Pension Plan (CPP), unemployment insurance, and in some provinces, other services as well (these are known as payroll taxes). Canadians are expected to double-check their income tax records at the end of every fiscal year (April) and pay the government any outstanding income tax owed. Collection of provincial and federal income taxes is jointly managed by the Canadian Revenue Agency (CRA), meaning all tax related matters in Canada are handled by a single federal bureaucracy.

Everything you buy in Canada receives an extra mark-up at the cash register in the form of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and a Provincial Sales Tax (PST). These days, a lot of provinces merge the two taxes together to make things easier, in the form of a Harmonized Sales Tax, or HST. The GST rate is currently set at 5 per cent of purchase price, while PST rates vary from province to province, but is usually a bit higher.

The Labour Movement

Unionized Canadian workers, or at least union bosses, tend to be quite political, and mostly support (and fund) left-wing causes and politicians. Here, representatives of the Ontario Federation of Labour march in support of the Occupy movement in 2011.

Canadian Unions

In the old days, when Canada’s manufacturing sector was considerably larger and more important than it is today, many Canadian factory workers formed unions in order to lobby for safer working conditions and higher pay from their employers. As manufacturing declined, unionization steadily shifted towards white collar work, and of the 30 per cent of Canadians who hold union membership today, the majority work in fields such as teaching, nursing, or government bureaucracy.

In a reflection of this growing dominance of government employees in the Canadian labour movement, the largest union in Canada is now the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE), which represents more than 615,000 Canadians working for the provincial and federal governments. Considerably smaller, the country’s largest private sector union is Unifor, which was founded in 2013 through a merger of various manufacturing unions. It represents over 300,000 workers. Most union workers are also members of labour federations in their provinces, and there is a national lobby group for union interests known as the Canadian Labour Congress.

Canada is not a country that experiences a great deal of labour unrest, and strikes are usually short and rare. Since an increasing number of the country’s unionized workers now perform safe, comfortable jobs for government employers, contract negations have lost a lot of their earlier passion and intensity, and are now mostly around the calm negotiation of things such as vacation lengths, sick days, and layoff procedures.

Обзор экономической конъюнктуры Банка Канады

Дата выпуска Время Факт. Прогноз Пред.
22.10.2020 17:30
28.06.2020 17:30
15.04.2020 17:30
21.12.2020 18:00
15.10.2020 17:30
29.06.2020 17:30

Аналитика

Обзор рынка FX за 15 апреля 2020 года Неделя перед Страстной пятницей и Пасхой на рынке FX всегда оказывается непростой. Обычно перед праздниками инвесторы стараются зафиксировать прибыль, но в рамках.

Данная аналитическая статья была написана после закрытия американского рынка Доллар США торговался в плюсе против всех основных валют на фоне сильных данных по США, гэпа вверх индекса Dow Jones.

Данная аналитическая статья была написана после закрытия американского рынка Доллар США получил очень слабую поддержку со стороны восстановления фондового рынка США в понедельник. На прошлой неделе.

Обсуждение — Обзор экономической конъюнктуры Банка Канады

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Canadian Economy Outlook Канада


Накануне предыдущих парламентских выборов, состоявшихся в октябре 2015 г., экономическая ситуация в Канаде была далека от благополучной. Примерно за год до этого произошёл обвал цен на мировых рынках нефти и газа, началось снижение спроса и цен на основные группы минерально-сырьевых товаров. Это отрицательно сказалось на экономике всех стран, имеющих весомую долю ресурсных отраслей в производстве и экспорте, в том числе – Канады и Австралии, где резко затормозился рост ВВП и сократился объём инвестиций, а также России и Бразилии, где из-за прекращения ресурсного бума и по иным причинам произошла рецессия.

ВВЕДЕНИЕ

Накануне предыдущих парламентских выборов, состоявшихся в октябре 2015 г., экономическая ситуация в Канаде была далека от благополучной. Примерно за год до этого произошёл обвал цен на мировых рынках нефти и газа, началось снижение спроса и цен на основные группы минерально-сырьевых товаров. Это отрицательно сказалось на экономике всех стран, имеющих весомую долю ресурсных отраслей в производстве и экспорте, в том числе – Канады и Австралии, где резко затормозился рост ВВП и сократился объём инвестиций, а также России и Бразилии, где из-за прекращения ресурсного бума и по иным причинам произошла рецессия.

2 В Канаде прирост реального ВВП в 2015 г. составил лишь 0,9%, а в 2020 г. – 1,4%. Объёмы прибылей корпораций и частных инвестиций в этот период сокращались. Уровень безработицы превышал 7%. До самых высоких показателей в истории страны увеличилась потребительская задолженность. Совокупные долги домохозяйств в 2015 г. впервые превысили 100% валового внутреннего продукта Канады [подробнее см.: Немова, 2015, с. 320–330]. 3 Вместе с тем, избегая упрощённых оценок, важно отметить следующее. С одной стороны, в последние несколько лет – в том числе и накануне предыдущих выборов – ситуация в канадской экономике выглядела заметно хуже, чем до мирового кризиса 2008–2009 гг. С другой стороны, по основным экономическим индикаторам, Канада, тем не менее, находится в посткризисный период в лучшей форме, чем большинство развитых рыночных стран, входящих в двадцатку крупнейших экономик мира [1]. 4 В «Группе семи» передовые позиции по темпам хозяйственного роста после 2020 г. заняли Соединённые Штаты. Обычно оживление деловой активности в США служит локомотивом экономического подъёма в Канаде. Ведь на американские рынки ориентировано примерно три четверти канадского экспорта, многие ключевые отрасли канадской экономики являются частью трансграничных производственных цепочек, а соседние регионы обеих стран имеют тесные хозяйственные связи. 5 Однако в посткризисный период и, особенно, в последние несколько лет зависимость Канады от США всё в большей степени оборачивается негативными последствиями, нежели преимуществами. 6 Вместе с тем и внутренние двигатели роста канадской экономики в последние два года «работают с перебоями».

ВНУТРЕННИЕ ФАКТОРЫ НЕУСТОЙЧИВОСТИ

В 2020 г. на фоне подъёма в мировом хозяйстве экономическая ситуация в Канаде временно улучшилась. Реальный ВВП вырос на 3%, а объём промышленного производства после сжатия в течение двух лет увеличился почти на 5% (табл. 1). Начал снижаться уровень безработицы, ускорился рост потребительских расходов. В этих условиях не только правительственные эксперты, но и независимые аналитики строили оптимистичные прогнозы о выходе экономики на более устойчивую траекторию развития.

ВНУТРЕННИЕ ФАКТОРЫ НЕУСТОЙЧИВОСТИ

В 2020 г. на фоне подъёма в мировом хозяйстве экономическая ситуация в Канаде временно улучшилась. Реальный ВВП вырос на 3%, а объём промышленного производства после сжатия в течение двух лет увеличился почти на 5% (табл. 1). Начал снижаться уровень безработицы, ускорился рост потребительских расходов. В этих условиях не только правительственные эксперты, но и независимые аналитики строили оптимистичные прогнозы о выходе экономики на более устойчивую траекторию развития.

Динамика основных показателей развития экономики Канады, 2020–2020 гг., % к предшествующему году

20002015* 2020 2020 2020 2020**
Реальный ВВП 2,0 1,4 3,0 1,8 1,5
Потребительские расходы 3,1 2,0 3,5 2,1 1,5
Инвестиции в секторе жилой недвижимости 3,9 3,4 2,4 –2,3 –2,9
Частные инвестиции 3,6 –8,4 4,2 2,5 –0,5
Государственные расходы 3,2 1,7 2,6 2,7 1,7
Прибыли корпораций до вычета налогов 6,3 –19,0 20,1 0,5 –4,7
Промышленное производство 0,3 –0,5 4,9 2,6 0,6
Занятость 1,5 0,6 1,9 1,3 1,6
Уровень безработицы, % численности рабочей силы 7,1 7,1 6,3 5,9 5,7
Индекс цен на потребительские товары и услуги 2,1 1,6 1,6 2,3 1,4
Баланс федерального бюджета, млрд долл. –3,3 –30,0 –17,8 –19,0 –18,1
Баланс федерального бюджета, % ВВП –0,1 –1,5 –0,9 –0,9 –0,8

* в среднем за период;

** прогноз Составлено по: Scotiabank Global Economic Research. Global Forecast Update. April 12, 2020. P. 4. >>> ; BMO Capital Markets. Canadian Economic Outlook. May 3, 2020. P.1. >>>

Динамика основных показателей развития экономики Канады, 2020–2020 гг., % к предшествующему году

20002015* 2020 2020 2020 2020**
Реальный ВВП 2,0 1,4 3,0 1,8 1,5
Потребительские расходы 3,1 2,0 3,5 2,1 1,5
Инвестиции в секторе жилой недвижимости 3,9 3,4 2,4 –2,3 –2,9
Частные инвестиции 3,6 –8,4 4,2 2,5 –0,5
Государственные расходы 3,2 1,7 2,6 2,7 1,7
Прибыли корпораций до вычета налогов 6,3 –19,0 20,1 0,5 –4,7
Промышленное производство 0,3 –0,5 4,9 2,6 0,6
Занятость 1,5 0,6 1,9 1,3 1,6
Уровень безработицы, % численности рабочей силы 7,1 7,1 6,3 5,9 5,7
Индекс цен на потребительские товары и услуги 2,1 1,6 1,6 2,3 1,4
Баланс федерального бюджета, млрд долл. –3,3 –30,0 –17,8 –19,0 –18,1
Баланс федерального бюджета, % ВВП –0,1 –1,5 –0,9 –0,9 –0,8

* в среднем за период;

** прогноз Составлено по: Scotiabank Global Economic Research. Global Forecast Update. April 12, 2020. P. 4. >>> ; BMO Capital Markets. Canadian Economic Outlook. May 3, 2020. P.1. >>>

9 Однако оживление деловой активности было недолгим. В 2020 и первой половине 2020 г. рост ВВП вновь затормозился – до 1,8% и 1,5%, соответственно. Подобная нестабильность связана с внутренними проблемами и с воздействием внешних шоков. 10 Внутренних причин торможения оказалось сразу несколько. Замедлился рост потребительских расходов. Впервые за многие годы сократился объём вложений в жилищное строительство. В отличие от США, в Канаде в целом наблюдается вялая инвестиционная активность. (Следует оговориться, что отделить внутренние проблемы от воздействия внешних факторов можно только с определённой степенью условности. В особенности в том, что касается инвестиций в предпринимательском секторе канадской экономики). 11 После того, как в 2015–2020 гг. реальные доходы многих канадцев сокращались, покупательная способность населения восстанавливается медленно. За этим стоит, прежде всего, небольшое увеличение зарплат. Показатели роста почасовых ставок оплаты труда наёмных работников – самые низкие за последние десять лет, т.е. с момента окончания рецессии в 2009 г. [2]. Поэтому значительное увеличение численности занятых и снижение безработицы не сопровождались пропорциональным ростом трудовых доходов. 12 В то же время накопленная задолженность домохозяйств продолжает удерживаться на уровне около 100% ВВП. Этот показатель примерно в 1,5 раза выше, чем в США, и в 2 раза выше, чем в других странах «Группы семи» [3]. По данным Организации экономического сотрудничества и развития, Канада относится к числу стран, в которых население несёт наиболее весомое бремя задолженности. Её имеют около 70% всех домохозяйств, а средний размер долга в 1,7 раза превосходит реальные располагаемые доходы (т.е. доходы с учётом инфляции и после выплаты налогов и обязательных сборов) [4]. 13 По данным опросов, в 2020 г. около 30% канадских домохозяйств считают своей главной финансовой проблемой выплату долгов. Неудивительно, что в этих условиях темпы роста потребительских расходов в 2020 и начале 2020 г. упали примерно вдвое по сравнению с благополучным в экономическом плане 2020 г.: до 1,5% против 3,5%. 14 Одновременно впервые с начала XXI века в Канаде сокращается объём инвестиций в жилищное строительство. Прежде, в течение почти двух десятилетий вложения в покупку готового и строительство нового жилья служили одним из главных двигателей роста экономики. В 2000–2015 гг. они увеличивались примерно на 4% в среднем ежегодно. В 2020–2020 гг. рост сменился падением на 2–3%. Это происходит по нескольким причинам. Отчасти – из-за повышения ставки процента центрального банка и удорожания потребительских и ипотечных кредитов.


15 Политика Банка Канады выстраивалась исходя из того, что за ускорением роста экономики Соединённых Штатов последует подъём деловой активности в Канаде. Учитывая реальный и предполагаемый курс ФРС США, центральный банк Канады в 2020–2020 гг. повышал свою учётную ставку пять раз. Она была постепенно поднята с 0,50 до 1,75 процентных пунктов. 16 Однако вскоре стало очевидно, что последовавшее удорожание потребительских и производственных кредитов оказалось несвоевременным и, по всей видимости, чрезмерным. Очередной виток роста потребительской задолженности заставил многих канадцев экономить на покупках, отказаться от планов строительства или приобретения жилья. «То обстоятельство, что канадцы прилагают все возможные усилия для сокращения долгов и воздерживаются от затрат, отрицательно сказывается на всей экономике в условиях, когда и рост мирового хозяйства замедляется», – отмечают банковские эксперты [5]. 17 О положении на рынке недвижимости следует сказать особо. В частности, потому, что меры, по регулированию в этой сфере заняли важное место в предвыборной программе правительства Либеральной партии. 18 Как отмечалось выше, даже в наименее благополучные годы посткризисного периода в Канаде наблюдались высокие темпы роста вложений в покупку и строительство жилья. Эксперты Международного валютного фонда и ОЭСР неоднократно предупреждали правительство Канады об опасностях, связанных с «перегревом» рынка недвижимости при замедленном и неустойчивом росте экономики. Такая ситуация действительно может показаться парадоксальной и опасной в условиях, когда накопленная потребительская задолженность достигла в Канаде исторического максимума и продолжает расти. Каким образом цены на жильё могли постоянно повышаться, если доходы значительной части граждан недостаточны для жизни без растущих долгов? 19 На самом деле удорожание жилья в Канаде в последние два десятилетия было связано главным образом с большим вкладом иммиграции в прирост численности населения. На переселенцев из других стран, приходится порядка 68–70% среднегодового прироста числа жителей Канады. При этом большинство иммигрантов предпочитают обосноваться в больших городах. Система отбора потенциальных переселенцев ориентирована на привлечение квалифицированных специалистов, предпринимателей, представителей состоятельных слоёв населения. Исследованиями установлено, что именно «новые канадцы» создают повышенный спрос на жилую недвижимость в городских агломерациях, приобретая её для собственных нужд, а также с целью инвестиций и осуществления спекулятивных операций [6]. 20 В таких городах, как Ванкувер и Торонто, были даже введены дополнительные налоги на приобретение домов и квартир иностранцами и переселенцами (ещё не получившими гражданство) в инвестиционных целях, а не для постоянного проживания. Наряду с этим федеральное правительство ввело более жёсткие правила предоставления ипотечных кредитов. И, как отмечалось, ипотека подорожала также из-за повышения ставки центробанка. В результате этих мер рост цен на жильё был приостановлен, в некоторых городах они даже немного снизились. Однако одновременно сократились инвестиции в покупку готовой и строительство новой жилой недвижимости [7]. 21 Наконец, вызывает опасения большая вероятность очередного сбоя в динамике частных инвестиций производственного назначения. После падения их объёма в 2015–2020 гг. в течение двух лет наблюдался небольшой рост. Согласно обзору инвестиционных планов, объявленных в самом начале 2020 г., предполагалось, что вложения в производственные здания, сооружения, машины и оборудование будут продолжать расти в 12 из 20 секторов канадской экономики. Увеличение общего объёма капиталовложений в предпринимательском секторе прогнозировалось на уровне 2,5% [8]. Однако обзоры канадских банков, опубликованные несколько месяцев спустя – в середине 2020 г. – уже предполагали возможность падения объёмов инвестиций производственного назначения в пределах от 0,5 до 1,5% [9]. Как отмечают банковские аналитики, бизнес «больше всего опасается неопределённости экономических перспектив». Между тем нестабильность и неопределённость в мировом хозяйстве и геополитической обстановке, по общему признанию, усиливаются.

РАСТУЩЕЕ ДАВЛЕНИЕ ВНЕШНИХ РИСКОВ

Канада относится к числу стран с «открытой экономикой», иными словами, доли экспорта и импорта товаров и капиталов в пропорции к ВВП находятся на высоком уровне. Хозяйственное развитие страны сильно зависит от внешних связей и торгово-инвестиционной стратегии крупнейших игроков в мировой экономике.

РАСТУЩЕЕ ДАВЛЕНИЕ ВНЕШНИХ РИСКОВ

Канада относится к числу стран с «открытой экономикой», иными словами, доли экспорта и импорта товаров и капиталов в пропорции к ВВП находятся на высоком уровне. Хозяйственное развитие страны сильно зависит от внешних связей и торгово-инвестиционной стратегии крупнейших игроков в мировой экономике.

23 В условиях возросшей глобальной турбулентности давление внешних рисков 2020–2020 гг. усилилось. Как отмечают аналитики, «над Канадой в последние годы нависли мрачные тучи неопределённости и проблем, которые подавляют инвестиционную активность» [10]. В целом медленнее, чем до глобального кризиса, и с перебоями растут объёмы внешней торговли (табл. 2).

Динамика внешней торговли Канады, 20202020 гг., % к предшествующему году

2000–2015* 2020 2020 2020 2020**
Экспорт 1,4 0,6 1,1 3,3 1,2
Импорт 3,0 –0,9 4,2 2,9 0,2
Торговый баланс, млрд. долл. 41,0 –32,0 –23,9 –21,5 –30,1
Платёжный баланс, млрд долл. 1,9 – 67,3 –59,4 –58,7 – 60,9

*в среднем за период

** прогноз Составлено по: Scotiabank Global Economic Research. Global Forecast Update. April 12, 2020. P. 4. >>>; BMO Capital Markets. Canadian Economic Outlook. May 3, 2020. P.1. Available at: >>>

Динамика внешней торговли Канады, 20202020 гг., % к предшествующему году

2000–2015* 2020 2020 2020 2020**
Экспорт 1,4 0,6 1,1 3,3 1,2
Импорт 3,0 –0,9 4,2 2,9 0,2
Торговый баланс, млрд. долл. 41,0 –32,0 –23,9 –21,5 –30,1
Платёжный баланс, млрд долл. 1,9 – 67,3 –59,4 –58,7 – 60,9

*в среднем за период

** прогноз Составлено по: Scotiabank Global Economic Research. Global Forecast Update. April 12, 2020. P. 4. >>>; BMO Capital Markets. Canadian Economic Outlook. May 3, 2020. P.1. Available at: >>>

25 В числе источников внешних рисков для канадской экономики в последние три года доминировали:

  • сложный процесс пересмотра соглашения НАФТА, усиление американского протекционизма;
  • эскалация «торговой войны» между США и Китаем;
  • проблемы, связанные с выходом Великобритании из состава Европейского Союза.
26 Ожидание переговоров и собственно переговоры по модернизации соглашения НАФТА «держали в подвешенном состоянии» многие крупные, средние и даже малые предприятия в Канаде в течение как минимум полутора лет. Ведь вследствие интенсивного развития континентальных интеграционных связей на протяжении последних 30 лет, практически во всех канадских провинциях бизнес более активно взаимодействуют с американскими партнёрами, нежели с «соседями» в собственной стране. На американские рынки в посткризисный период ориентировано около 75% экспортных поставок из Канады (до кризиса 2008–2009 гг. – более 80%). Несколько ключевых отраслей канадской добывающей и обрабатывающей промышленности отправляют в США до половины и более производимой продукции. Поэтому изменения «в правилах игры» и возможность попасть под действие мер, направленных против «несправедливых» (с точки зрения американских властей) торговых практик, так или иначе дезорганизует инвестиционные и производственные планы канадских компаний. 27 Переговоры по обновлённому варианту НАФТА были завершены в конце 2020 г. В мае 2020 г. вице-президент США Майк Пенс обсуждал с премьер-министром Джастином Трюдо перспективы скорейшей ратификации и вступления в силу нового трёхстороннего соглашения ЮСМКА (the U.S.-MexicoCanada Agreement, USMCA) [Комкова Е.Г. 2020: c. 68–84]. 28 По оценкам канадских экспертов, в том числе тех, которые были вовлечены в подготовку и проведение переговорного процесса, это соглашение, с точки зрения интересов канадского бизнеса, «несколько хуже прежнего, но оказалось не таким плохим, как могло случиться» [11]. 29 Казалось бы, теперь, по крайней мере, устранена проблема неопределённости в отношениях с главным торгово-инвестиционным партнёром Канады. Однако и в этом плане бизнес-консультанты предупреждают канадские компании об опасности самоуспокоения. «Протекционизм, национализм и нестабильность политической обстановки в США должны подтолкнуть канадский бизнес к более активным поискам партнёров за пределами Северной Америки, иначе невозможно поддерживать конкурентоспособность» – отмечается в обзоре, посвящённом экспертным оценкам изменений в условиях международной торговли [11]. Эти условия постоянно меняются, и возникают сложные переплетения различных аспектов ведения бизнеса. «Налоговая стратегия связана со стратегией выстраивания производственных цепочек, которые, в свою очередь, связаны со стратегией конечных потребителей продукции, а на них влияют торговые войны и геополитическая напряжённость» [12].


30 Предпринятые в последние десять лет попытки правительства и деловых кругов Канады диверсифицировать внешнеэкономические связи, по большому счёту, пока не дали существенных результатов. Значительно активизировать взаимодействие с торгово-инвестиционными партнёрами за пределами Северной Америки не удалось по причинам, которые не поддаются контролю с канадской стороны. 31 После выхода Соединённых Штатов из состава участников Транстихоокеанского партнёрства (инициатором создания которого были США в годы правления администрации Б. Обамы) потребовался пересмотр многих пунктов соглашения и возобновление переговоров между 11 оставшимися партнёрами. В любом случае американские компании были и остаются главными соперниками канадских компаний на многих, если не на всех, рынках Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона. И надо полагать, что cвобода от обязательств, закреплённых для членов обновлённого ТТП (Всеобъемлющего и прогрессивного Транстихоокеанского партнёрства) только расширяет арсенал инструментов конкурентной борьбы, которые может использовать американский бизнес. 32 Серьёзный удар по планам Канады диверсифицировать внешнеэкономические связи наносит эскалация конфликтов в отношениях между США и Китаем. После глобального кризиса 2008–2009 гг. расширение торгово-инвестиционных связей с КНР рассматривалось в Канаде как одно из наиболее важных направлений стратегии диверсификации. Масштабы канадско-китайского взаимодействия быстро росли, а после прихода к власти Либеральной партии во главе с Джастином Трюдо стороны начали рассматривать возможности заключения двустороннего соглашения о свободной торговле [Немова Л.А. 2020: с. 40–51]. 33 Однако в условиях развёртывания торговой войны между США и Китаем Канада оказалась «на линии огня». Правительству страны пришлось делать выбор между традиционно главным торгово-экономическим партнёром, с одной стороны, и самой быстро растущей из крупнейших экономик мира, с другой. Под давлением Соединённых Штатов Канада втянута в конфликт между «двумя гигантами». После того, как канадские власти по просьбе с американской стороны в начале декабря 2020 г. задержали главного финансового директора китайской телекоммуникационной корпорации «Хуавей» (Huawei) Мэн Ваньчжоу, отношения с Китаем резко испортились, а объёмы двусторонних торговых обменов пошли на спад. Более того, в то время как администрация Д. Трампа склоняет правительство Джастина Трюдо к экстрадиции Мэн Ваньчжоу в США, Китай начал применять прямые торговые санкции против импорта канадской сельскохозяйственной продукции. 34 Наконец, процесс выхода Великобритании из состава Европейского Союза затормозил процесс ратификации и практической реализации Всеобъемлющего торгового и экономического соглашения между Канадой и ЕС (СЕТА) [Соколов и др., 2020: с. 189–191]. С момента начала переговоров до сентября 2020 г., когда, наконец, частично вступили в силу некоторые его положения, прошло около 10 лет. Затянувшийся «Брексит» усиливает обстановку неопределённости в Европейском Союзе, отвлекает внимание от решения практических вопросов взаимодействия с Канадой. Пока «формальный развод» не завершён, не могут быть начаты переговоры о свободной торговле между Канадой и Великобританией. И складывается парадоксальная ситуация: бывшая метрополия и доминион, связанные вековыми, тесными и многообразными узами, остаются двумя единственными среди ведущих рыночных стран государствами, не имеющими современного договора об особых партнёрских отношениях в торгово-экономической сфере. Между тем, президент США Дональд Трамп во время визита в Лондон в начале июня 2020 г. заявил о готовности начать переговоры о «феноменальном торговом соглашении» с Великобританией сразу же после улаживания формальностей с ЕС. Очевидно, что правительству Канады необходимо будет предпринимать особые усилия, чтобы не остаться «третьим лишним». 35 В конечном счёте глобальная нестабильность и международная политика американской администрации усиливает зависимость Канады от Соединённых Штатов и делает более неопределёнными перспективы развития её экономики в ближайшем будущем.

ИСТОЧНИКИ

[1] Scotiabank Global Economic Research. Global Forecast Update. April 12, 2020. P. 4. Available at: >>> (accessed 15.05.2020).

[2] BMO Capital Markets. Canadian Economic Outlook. May 3, 2020. P. 1. Available at: >>> (accessed 15.05.2020).

[3] Digging A Grave: Canadian Household Debt Is Debtly. Finextra. 22.02.2020. Available at: >>> (accessed 18.05.2020).

[4] Canada Households Debt to GDP. Trading Economics. 18.01 2020. Available at: >>> (accessed 18.05.2020).

[5] Bloomberg News. 18.04 2020. Available at: >>> (accessed: 27.05.2020)

[6] Powell N. Foreign buyers’ influence on Toronto and Vancouver housing markets is rising: report. The Financial Post. 06.02.2020. Available at: >>> (accessed 22.05.2020).

[7] Canadian home sales fall to lowest level in 5 years. Bloomberg News. 15.05.2020. Available at: >>> (accessed 22.05.2020).

[8] Non-residential capital and repair expenditures, 2020 (revised), 2020 (preliminary) and 2020 (intentions). Statistics Canada. Released: 28.02.2020. Available at: >>> (accessed 21.05.2020).

[9] BMO Capital Markets. Canadian Economic Outlook. May 3, 2020. P. 1. >>> (accessed 18.05.2020).

[10] Isfeld G. A whole pile of uncertainties:’ Trade, politics expected to hang like a dark cloud over the economy. The Financial Post. 05.02.2020. Available at: >>> (accessed: 20.04.2020).

[11] Smith D. International Trade: New Sandbox Rules. Canadian Politics and Public Policy. March-April 2020. Available at: >>> (accessed: 7.06.2020).

[12] Nott J. New Trade Rules. Bloomberg. 02.10.2020. Available at: >>> (accessed: 17.01.2020).

ИСТОЧНИКИ

[1] Scotiabank Global Economic Research. Global Forecast Update. April 12, 2020. P. 4. Available at: >>> (accessed 15.05.2020).

[2] BMO Capital Markets. Canadian Economic Outlook. May 3, 2020. P. 1. Available at: >>> (accessed 15.05.2020).

[3] Digging A Grave: Canadian Household Debt Is Debtly. Finextra. 22.02.2020. Available at: >>> (accessed 18.05.2020).

[4] Canada Households Debt to GDP. Trading Economics. 18.01 2020. Available at: >>> (accessed 18.05.2020).

[5] Bloomberg News. 18.04 2020. Available at: >>> (accessed: 27.05.2020)

[6] Powell N. Foreign buyers’ influence on Toronto and Vancouver housing markets is rising: report. The Financial Post. 06.02.2020. Available at: >>> (accessed 22.05.2020).


[7] Canadian home sales fall to lowest level in 5 years. Bloomberg News. 15.05.2020. Available at: >>> (accessed 22.05.2020).

[8] Non-residential capital and repair expenditures, 2020 (revised), 2020 (preliminary) and 2020 (intentions). Statistics Canada. Released: 28.02.2020. Available at: >>> (accessed 21.05.2020).

[9] BMO Capital Markets. Canadian Economic Outlook. May 3, 2020. P. 1. >>> (accessed 18.05.2020).

[10] Isfeld G. A whole pile of uncertainties:’ Trade, politics expected to hang like a dark cloud over the economy. The Financial Post. 05.02.2020. Available at: >>> (accessed: 20.04.2020).

[11] Smith D. International Trade: New Sandbox Rules. Canadian Politics and Public Policy. March-April 2020. Available at: >>> (accessed: 7.06.2020).

[12] Nott J. New Trade Rules. Bloomberg. 02.10.2020. Available at: >>> (accessed: 17.01.2020).

Библиография

1. Канада: основные тенденции развития. К 150-летию государства / [Соколов В.И. и др.]; отв. ред. В.И. Соколов; Институт США и Канады Российской Академии наук. – М.: Издательство «Весь Мир», 2020. – 432 с. С. 189–192.

2. Комкова Е.Г. 2020. С НАФТА и без него: гипотетические варианты экономических последствий для США, Канады и Мексики. США & Канада: экономика, политика, культура. № 3. C. 68–84. DOI: 10.31857/S032120680004156 5

3. Немова Л.А., 2015. Канада: спад в экономике и смена правительства. Год планеты: ежегодник. Вып. 2015 г.: экономика, политика, безопасность / Отв. ред. В.Г. Барановский. М.: Идея-Пресс, 2015. – 480 с.

4. Немова Л.А., 2020. Политика правительства Канады на китайском направлении. США & Канада: экономика, политика, культура. № 9. C. 40–51. DOI: 10.31857/S032120680000715-0

Экономика и торговля Канады (топик)

The Economy and Trade of Canada

The Canadian economy is among the worlds soundest. Canada is the seventh-largest trading nation among the industrialised market economies and an active partner in international investment.

Canada is a trading nation. About 26 per cent of the country’s total output of goods and services (GDP) is exported — mostly to the United States, which is by far the country’s biggest market, and supplying 66 per cent of its imports. In fact, Canada and the United States are each others most important trading partners.

Evolution of the Canadian Economy

Although Canada is known worldwide as a rich source of raw materials and primary products such as wheat, oil, lumber and minerals, in recent years the structure of the Canadian economy has changed. Over the past quarter-century, resource exports have become a less important part of Canada’s trade mix, representing just over one-fifth of Canadian exports now. Fewer than 13 per cent of Canadian workers are now employed in primary industries. A similar trend has been occurring in manufacturing.

The services sector (community, business and personal) is now paramount, employing over 70 per cent of the Canadian work force. The growing role of knowledge-based activity is forcing re-examination of educational priorities and retraining programmes.

Since the beginning of the 1980s, Canada has had the fastest-growing labour force of any of the G-7 (Group of Seven Finance Ministers) countries .

Employment has expanded rapidly since the beginning of the decade, but increasing numbers of jobs are part-time.

Экономика и торговля Канады

Канадская экономика — в числе самых здоровых в мире. Канада — седьмая по величине страна-участница внешней торговли среди индустриализированных рыночных экономик и активный партнер в международных инвестициях.

Канада — страна-участница внешней торговли. Приблизительно 26 процентов общего объема производства страны среди товаров и услуг (валовой внутренний продукт) экспортируется — главным образом, в Соединенные Штаты, которые являются, безусловно, самым большим рынком страны и поставщиком 66 процентов ее импорта. Фактически, Канада и Соединенные Штаты — самые важные торговые партнеры друг для друга.

Развитие канадской экономики

Хотя Канада известна во всем мире как богатый источник сырья и первичных продуктов, таких как пшеница, нефть, древесина и полезные ископаемые, в последние годы структура канадской экономики изменилась. За прошлую четверть века экспорт ресурсов стал менее важной частью торговых поставок Канады, представляя теперь только более одной пятой канадского экспорта. Меньше, чем 13 процентов канадских рабочих теперь наняты в первичных отраслях промышленности. Подобную тенденцию можно обнаружить в производстве.

Сектор услуг (общественных, деловых и индивидуальных) является теперь главным, и он нанимает более 70 процентов канадской рабочей силы. Растущая роль деятельности, основанной на знаниях, вызывает повторную проверку образовательных приоритетов и подготовку программ.


С начала 1980-х в Канаде была более быстро растущая рабочая сила, чем в любой из стран Большой семерки (группа Семи Министров финансов).

С началом десятилетия быстро возросла занятость, но увеличившееся количество рабочих мест приходится на работу с частичной занятостью.

The Economy of Canada

Canada is one of the world’s richest nations, with a highly sophisticated economy and a top-tier standard of living. Though obviously not everyone in Canada is equally well-off, most Canadians nevertheless hold reasonably well-paying jobs and access to ample creature comforts that citizens in many other countries can only dream of.

A romanticized image of 19th century fur traders rolling into town.
Franklin Arbuckle (1909-2001), HCB Archives
Canadian Cars

An assembly line at a Chrysler automobile assembly plant in Windsor, Ontario (1953). Today, Canada helps build cars and trucks for a variety of global brands, including Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, and Fiat.

Economic History of Canada

Canada was basically founded as a money-making scheme. In the 17th century, when North America was first being colonized by the French and British, the northern half of the continent was considered an alluring place because of all the furry woodland creatures it contained, since beautiful, glossy furs were one of the most desired possessions of wealthy Europeans of the time. For centuries, the early Canadian colonies thrived under a simple economic system known as the fur trade, where hunters gathered and sold animal skins under the employment of large fur corporations — mostly the Hudson’s Bay Company — who then used their profits to purchase land and build trading posts in new areas where even more fur could be found.

As they moved west from the St. Lawerence River region, European settlers discovered Canada was full of lots of other things they could harvest and sell too, including lumber, fish, coal, iron, and gold. The development of farms in arable regions, meanwhile, yielded ample harvests of wheat and other grains as well as meat and dairy products from raising livestock. Originally, much of Canada’s resource bounty was sold to Britain and France, the colonial rulers. But as the years went on, it soon became more logical and profitable for Canada to do most of its trade with the United States — which was considerably closer — or simply among cities and provinces within Canada itself.

The industrial revolution of the late 19th and early 20th centuries introduced all sorts of exciting new machines to the world, and saw Canadians begin to develop a robust manufacturing sector, with giant factories able to transform raw natural resources into useful high-tech things like paper, cloth, steel, chemicals, and automobiles, while dams and derricks enabled the production of new commodities like hydroelectricity, oil, and natural gas. In the decades following World War II (1939-1945), the Canadian economy shifted dramatically once again as industrial profits were invested into higher wages and taxes, and social services. A growth of schools, particularly affordable colleges and universities, produced a more educated population able to pursue office work and largely abandon manual labour in factories and farms, while Canadian corporations sought larger profits by outsourcing manufacturing jobs to cheaper workers in poorer countries. By the dawn of the 21st century, Canada had become an integrated part of a thoroughly globalized economy in which Canadian workers now only produce goods and services that cannot be produced cheaper in some other country. This has made life more affordable for many Canadians, but has come at the cost of eliminating many traditional sources of Canadian employment.

Economy vs. Environment?

Northern Alberta contains enormous reserves of bitumen, a type of crude oil mixed with soil that can be used to make petroleum. Since the 1980s, Canada’s «oil sands» industry has grown to employ tends of thousands of Canadians, yet the industry is becoming increasingly controversial as concerns grow over the degree the harvest and use of oil affects climate change. The question of whether to build new oil pipelines to further expand the Canadian oil industry is one of Canada’s most controversial economic debates.

Canada’s Modern Economy and Industries

Having largely abandoned the country’s agricultural-manufacturing past, today upwards of 75 per cent of Canadians work in what is dubbed the service sector of the economy, while only a small minority still work in farms or factories. The service sector of the Canadian economy is extremely vast and diverse, and basically entails any sort of (mostly) non-physical work that deals with helping people, rather than making or growing things. Most Canadians who live in large cities like Toronto, Vancouver, or Montreal work in the service sector.

Within the service sector, the largest sub-sector is the trades, which are highly specialized, skill-based professions like electrician, carpenter, or computer repairman. Other large sub-sectors include health care, which includes doctors, nurses and surgeons, plus their clerks and assistants; finance, which includes bankers, stock brokers, and real-estate agents; education, which includes teachers, professors, librarians and administrators; and food and retail, which covers cooks, store clerks, and cashiers in places like shopping malls, restaurants, grocery stores, and other shops. Writers, artists, journalists, and entertainers are all considered service workers, too. Government or bureaucratic work has also become quite popular in recent decades, with the Canadian federal government now said to be the single largest employer in the country.

Canada’s few remaining farmers reside primarily in the Prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, where they continue to grow crops such as wheat, corn, and oilseed, as well as raise cattle and pigs for meat and dairy, just like their forefathers before them. In many parts of the country, a renewed interest in organic food is helping provide some Canadian farmers, particularly fruit and vegetable farmers, with a mini boom, but overall, Canadian agriculture remains very much an industry in decline.

Canadian manufacturing remains only slightly more lucrative, and still employs about two million workers, or about 13 per cent of the country’s total labour force. Like agriculture, it’s another industry highly concentrated in one part of the country, in this case the so-called “central Canadian region” of Ontario and Quebec, which together house more than 75 per cent of all Canadian manufacturing jobs. The most famous of these remain centred around Canada’s automotive sector, historically one of the leading symbols of Canada’s postwar economic boom, but now in steady decline as outsourcing and robotics lower the need for Canadian workers in this sector. In forest-rich British Columbia, the production of lumber and paper still dominates provincial manufacturing, while the production of food, chemicals, electronics, and other miscellaneous bits of machinery dominate in small communities elsewhere. As is the case with most western nations, much of what Canadians still manufacture in their own country consists of specialty products that are either too expensive or impractical to build overseas.

Shoppers pondering purchases at a Costco warehouse store in Hamilton, Ontario.
Alastair Wallace/Shutterstock
NAFTA and beyond

In 1988, the economies of Canada and the United States became even more deeply intertwined when the governments of the two countries signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The idea had been a controversial one in Canada for many years, with so-called «economic nationalists» arguing more trade with America would rob Canada of its political and economic independence. Today, the agreement is broadly popular, however, and supported by all political parties. In 1992, Mexico joined the arrangement, which became known as the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. In 2020, it was renegotiated into a revised deal known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, which was signed on November 30, 2020, seen here.

Trade and the United States

Trade comprises more than 65 per cent of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), making it one of the most trade-dependent countries in the world. Of this, upwards of 75 per cent of all Canadian trade is done exclusively with the United States, meaning the modern Canadian economy is extremely dependent upon, and integrated with, the economic happenings of America. So much so, in fact, that some economic analysts don’t think it’s even worth talking about “Canada” and the “United States” as two separate economic entities, so conjoined are their economies.

The most valuable goods Canada exports, or sells, to the United States are energy resources, namely oil, chemical fuels, electricity, and natural gas (many are surprised to learn that Canada, and not some country in the Middle East, is America’s biggest foreign source of oil). Most of Canada’s remaining exports to the U.S. are simply half-assembled products that are then completed in America. Half-assembled cars comprise a particularly large category, and Canada and the United States jointly operate the largest automobile manufacturing sector on Earth, based out of the Ontario-Michigan border region. From the U.S., Canada imports just about everything, including food, completed cars, chemicals, electronics, and tons of entertainment products like books, movies, and video games. Overall, Canada is the single biggest foreign consumer of American goods and the United States runs a large trade surplus with Canada — meaning Canadians buy a lot more from the United States than the United States buys from Canada.

Along with being the country’s biggest trade partner, the United States is also the single largest foreign investor in the Canadian economy, with around 50 per cent of all foreign direct investment in Canada held by Americans. Much of this investment takes the form of American corporations setting up shop in Canada. Cruise the streets of any major Canadian city and you’ll be greeted with an endless array of popular American chains, from McDonald’s to Starbucks to Wal-Mart, catering to Canadian customers. It’s not an entirely uncontroversial state of affairs; while American corporations provide millions of jobs for Canadians, critics argue the dominance of American companies in Canada hurts Canadian corporations and investors who have difficulty competing with Americans. The Canadian government does have rules that limit foreign ownership in certain industries deemed too important to trust to Americans (or any other foreigners, for that matter), including telecommunications, energy, national defence, and culture.

In addition to the United States, Canada currently has free trade agreements with much of Latin America (Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Panama, and Peru), middle eastern allies Israel and Jordan, and the four non-EU countries in Europe – Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland, though the amount of trade Canada does with these countries is quite small.


Tax Politics

Canada’s sales taxes have long been among the most contentious and unpopular political policies in modern Canada, and something Canadians never tire of complaining about. The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) by the government of Prime Minister Brian Mulroney (b. 1939) in 1991 helped poison his legacy and ruin his party, and all subsequent prime ministers have been elected, in part, on campaigns promising to lower it. Though not quite as radioactive, PSTs (provincial sales tax) and HSTs (harmonized sales tax) have ruined more than their share of political careers, too.

Taxes in Canada

Canadians like to complain about taxes, but compared to other major industrialized democracies, Canada’s rate of taxation is comparatively low. Total tax revenue in Canada represents about 32 per cent of the country’s GDP, compared to 36 per cent in Germany, 45 per cent in France and 47 per cent in Denmark. The bulk of the money Canadians give to their government is withdrawn through taxes on incomes and purchases, which are charged at both the national and provincial level.

Personal income taxes in Canada are progressive, which is to say, people pay a different rate depending on how much income they make. Federally, the bottom rate is 15 per cent and the top rate is 33 per cent, while at the provincial level most rates are (very roughly) half that. Corporations pay income tax too. The federal corporate tax rate is a flat 15% (10% for “small businesses”), one of the lowest rates in the world, while the provincial rates are, again, roughly half that. The bulk of income taxes Canadians pay are deducted automatically from their paycheques, along with other specialized taxes that are used to finance the Canadian Pension Plan (CPP), unemployment insurance, and in some provinces, other services as well (these are known as payroll taxes). Canadians are expected to double-check their income tax records at the end of every fiscal year (April) and pay the government any outstanding income tax owed. Collection of provincial and federal income taxes is jointly managed by the Canadian Revenue Agency (CRA), meaning all tax related matters in Canada are handled by a single federal bureaucracy.

Everything you buy in Canada receives an extra mark-up at the cash register in the form of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and a Provincial Sales Tax (PST). These days, a lot of provinces merge the two taxes together to make things easier, in the form of a Harmonized Sales Tax, or HST. The GST rate is currently set at 5 per cent of purchase price, while PST rates vary from province to province, but is usually a bit higher.

The Labour Movement

Unionized Canadian workers, or at least union bosses, tend to be quite political, and mostly support (and fund) left-wing causes and politicians. Here, representatives of the Ontario Federation of Labour march in support of the Occupy movement in 2011.

Canadian Unions

In the old days, when Canada’s manufacturing sector was considerably larger and more important than it is today, many Canadian factory workers formed unions in order to lobby for safer working conditions and higher pay from their employers. As manufacturing declined, unionization steadily shifted towards white collar work, and of the 30 per cent of Canadians who hold union membership today, the majority work in fields such as teaching, nursing, or government bureaucracy.

In a reflection of this growing dominance of government employees in the Canadian labour movement, the largest union in Canada is now the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE), which represents more than 615,000 Canadians working for the provincial and federal governments. Considerably smaller, the country’s largest private sector union is Unifor, which was founded in 2013 through a merger of various manufacturing unions. It represents over 300,000 workers. Most union workers are also members of labour federations in their provinces, and there is a national lobby group for union interests known as the Canadian Labour Congress.

Canada is not a country that experiences a great deal of labour unrest, and strikes are usually short and rare. Since an increasing number of the country’s unionized workers now perform safe, comfortable jobs for government employers, contract negations have lost a lot of their earlier passion and intensity, and are now mostly around the calm negotiation of things such as vacation lengths, sick days, and layoff procedures.

Canadian Economic Outlook & Market Fundamentals. 1st Quarter Update

    Christian Daniels 3 years ago Views:

1 2011 Canadian Economic Outlook & Market Fundamentals 1st Quarter Update

2 Real estate provides a significant contribution to the performance of an investment portfolio, and hence is a consistently preferred asset class in the investment community. The following quarterly report provides an updated commentary on: investment trends, economic data, financial conditions and leasing fundamentals that affect the performance, attractiveness, associated risks, and outlook for the real estate investment market.

3 2011 Economic Outlook & Market Fundamentals 1st Quarter Update April 2011 Any request for photocopying, recording, or taping of any part of Morguard s Research Reports shall be directed to Keith Reading, Manager, Research at Front Cover Photograph: Corus Quay, 25 Dockside Drive, Toronto, ON Copyright 2011 by Morguard Investments Limited, a Wholly Owned Subsidiary of Morguard Corporation. Previous editions copyrighted 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998 by Morguard Investments Limited. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in a data base retrieval system, without the prior written consent of Morguard Investments Limited, 55 City Centre Drive, Suite 800, Mississauga, Ontario, L5B 1M3.

4 2011 Economic Outlook & Market Fundamentals Table of Contents: Financial Report. 2 Investment Report. 3 Leasing Report. 4 Economic Report. 5 Transactions. 6 Acknowledgements/Works Cited. 7

5 Financial Report MONETARY TIGHTENING ON HOLD FOR NOW The Bank of Canada is expected to hold-off on further monetary tightening until at least the mid-summer. Historically, the Bank has shown a propensity for putting a hold on changes to its key overnight rate immediately preceding a Federal election, to ensure that monetary policy does not become an election issue. In so doing, the Bank is able to maintain its position of impartiality. Changes to the overnight rate have traditionally been just as unlikely during a Federal campaign, or, immediately following a national vote. The rate has never been changed just prior to a vote. The only occasion on which a rate change was made close to an election in the last 20 years was in 1997, shortly after the June 2nd vote. Currently, many believe that Mark Carney, the Bank s head, will be reluctant to make any material monetary policy decisions until the fiscal direction of the new government is determined. While the impending election is one issue that will likely determine the Bank s monetary policy in the near-term, a number of more traditional variables are also at play. The continued increase in the value of the Canadian dollar from its already lofty perch also adds to the rationale for holding firm on rates. Modest core inflation and a stubbornly high unemployment rate further the case for rate stability. In summary, while experts differ in their view of precisely when monetary tightening will resume, it is clear rates will remain unchanged for now, and perhaps to the end of the summer. In the meantime, the Bank of Canada will continue to monitor events at home and abroad, in an effort to balance its next policy move with driving continued economic recovery. For now, the low interest environment will support real estate investment liquidity. HEALTHY CAPITAL FLOWS CONTINUE Healthy investment liquidity continues to be supported by equally healthy capital and debt market trends of late. In terms of the public market, the Bank of Montreal s REITers Digest report for March 29th indicated that the 20 REITs/Corporations they track raised a total of $10.6 billion in capital in 2010, well above the ten-year average of just $2.75 billion. In the first quarter of 2011, a further $1.3 billion was raised by this group combined. This rising trend is not all that surprising when one peruses a list of significant Canadian real estate investments over the past year. REITs and/or publicly traded operating companies were the purchasers of approximately 45.7% of all investment property transacted, with a minimum sale price of $10.0 million, in 2010 and the first quarter. The ration excludes portfolio transactions. The ability to raise capital in the public markets was in large part driven by healthy debt market trends, which acted as a boon to investment activity. Through to the first quarter of this year, commercial mortgage fund availability has been healthy. Traditional lending outlets, banks and life insurance companies, continue to allocate funds to meet demand. This is particularly true for premium-quality assets with strong sponsorship characteristics. Lenders have also increasingly offered favourable terms in development scenarios, where fundamentals are strong and sponsorship is supportive of any shortfall. B and C grade lending trends have also improved over the credit-crisis era. Borrowing rates are expected to remain low in the near-term, driven by the Bank of Canada s hold on rates. In summary, the combination of ongoing recovery in the public and debt capital markets will act as a driver of healthy investment market demand and liquidity in the near-term. 2

6 Investment Report INVESTMENT DEMAND REMAINS HEALTHY Healthy investment demand characterized the Canadian real estate sector in the first quarter, continuing the recovery that began in late Strong interest across all asset classes has been evident in bidding situations on available offerings, particularly at the upper end of the quality spectrum. Interest in well-located properties with strong tenancy profiles has come from both the private and public sectors, thereby pushing pricing to arguably near peak levels observed during the pre-debt crisis cycle. With interest rates still hovering at low levels in the near-term and returns that are attractive to investors, demand for Canadian investment real estate is expected to remain high. Demand strength in Canada s investment sector has resulted in downward pressure on cap rates and a rising value trend. The relatively strong supply of mortgage and debt capital has also driven transaction volume back to more levels in keeping with decade averages over the last 12 months. A number of significant transactions boosted transaction volume performance in the first quarter. Transactional evidence in the first quarter suggests that annual sales volume is on pace to match the decade average, building on the 2010 recovery. Liquidity levels have already received a boost from the sale of Erin Mills Town Centre in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) for $393.0 million and the Minto Group/KingSett Capital/H.O.O.P.P. acquisition of the Cherryhill Village multi-family, office and retail portfolio. Furthermore, there are several other transactions set to close shortly, which will add to the already healthy start to Homburg REIT is set to close on a 50% interest in Scotia Centre in Calgary. The sale of the downtown class A office complex should fetch $116.0 million. The April closing of the sale of Atrium on Bay in Toronto s downtown periphery area is expected to see the office and retail complex transact for $344.8 million, with H&R REIT as the purchaser. Finally, the disposition by foreign-backed TransGlobe of 495 apartments in the Vancouver area is another example of the healthy closing activity in Canada s investment market so far this year. In short, it would seem to be a safe bet that Canada s commercial real estate investment market will at least match the 2010 resurgence in liquidity, which is being driven by; the availability of debt and mortgage capital, strong buyer depth, and improving leasing trends. RETURN RESULT SHOULD AT LEAST MATCH LAST YEAR Investment returns are expected to build on last year s resurgence in Ongoing economic recovery is expected to drive a similar trajectory for the office and industrial leasing markets. As a result, income performances are expected to better last year s solid showing. Further momentum is expected as the US recovery gains solid footing, resulting in rising demand for Canada s exports. During the market correction of 2009, industrial was the hardest hit, given its relative dependence on export activity. Over the last six months for example, the Toronto industrial leasing market has started to register a modest up-tick in demand. Its sustainability will result in improved returns. Retail sales are also expected to continue to rise this year, as the job markets slowly rebounds. The 2010 stabilization, and eventual modest increase in values, is expected to continue, after the correction of the previous year. Therefore, capital performance is also expected to improve over In short, continued recovery in Canada s economy and real estate sector will push returns to at least that of 2010, when a total annual rolling return of 11.1% in the IPD index was tallied. 3

7 Leasing Report CALGARY DOWNTOWN OFFICE MARKET OUTPERFORMS Take-up of office space in Calgary s downtown core continued to best most predictions in the first quarter. Through all of 2010, a total of just over 1.7 million square feet of space was absorbed in the Central Core area. The node s vacant position was consequently yanked down to the low doubledigits, from a peak of 15.0% at the close of Surging space demand was driven in large part by the ongoing recovery in global demand for oil as the economic recovery emerged. Oil and engineering companies, in several cases, have taken sublease space off the market made available during the recession. The rise in vacancy that occurred through this period was exacerbated by the continued delivery of new towers to inventory. The resurgence in demand has resulted in a firming trend for rents. Property owners in Calgary s downtown core continue to hold-out hope that rental inflation may occur sooner than expected, despite the fact that vacancy levels should remain well above the peak for some time. The challenge for investors is to try to ride-out the recovery and capitalize on the eventual rising rental trend. The delivery of the newly constructed Bow will most certainly impact the timing of realization of rental growth. The completion of the Bow in late 2011/early 2012, will most certainly inject a significant volume of vacancy into Calgary s downtown office market. While the exact square footage of space to be vacated by the Bow s lead tenant, Encana, is yet to be confirmed, a marked increase is in the cards. Consequently, the delivery of the 1.7 million square foot complex will at least partially offset further gains in occupancy. Encana currently occupies space in several buildings in downtown Calgary, which will be at least in part vacated. Further, there are several blocks of new vacancy coming to market in other downtown complexes in Even if current demand levels prevail, the betting is that it will be at least two years for the market absorb the excess space and return to peak vacancy levels. Calgary s downtown core will continue to suffer the affects of above-average vacancy levels for some time. The pace at which this space is absorbed will drive rental growth trends and, as a result, return performance in the near-to medium term. TORONTO INDUSTRIAL FINALLY ON THE MEND There have been an increasing number of signs of a broad-based recovery in leasing fundamentals in the nation s largest industrial inventory recently. In the first quarter availability fell by a further 10 bps, after a full percentage point drop in During the demand-driven correction, the rate had increased by roughly 300 bps from peak to trough. Through the first half of 2010 the slower than-expected US economic recovery held the rate stubbornly high. While focused in newer, more functional buildings initially, a modest recovery in leasing fundamentals in second generation space in older markets like Toronto has been noted recently. As a result, availability levels have started to decrease slightly. The continued economic recovery in the US is often cited as the cause. Canada s aggregate availability, which threatened double digit territory during the recession, has now dropped to the mid-single digits. A continued recovery in demand for second generation premises should eventually result in a firming trend for rents, expected later this year. The challenge for investors is to try to time the rising rent cycle in order to maximize return performance. 4

8 Economic Report RECOVERY CONTINUES WITH SOLID START TO THE YEAR Canada s economy kicked off the year in solid fashion with expansion of 0.5% month-over-month in January. The result represented a continuation of the positive growth trend that began in the final quarter of During the fourth quarter, the Canadian economy expanded by an annualized rate of 3.3%, having slipped below the 2.0% growth threshold in the previous quarter. Accelerated growth in the last few months was supported by a strengthening US recovery, which translated into expansion in the Manufacturing, Mining, and Transportation sub-sectors of the Canadian economy. Goods-Producing output increased by 1.1% in January, along with Services sector expansion of a modest 0.3%. Both results mirrored those of the previous 30 days. The key driver of the January result was the Manufacturing sector, which posted expansion of 2.8%; the largest contributors being Automotive and Metal Fabrication. Other drivers of the positive result were the Transportation and Warehousing sectors, each with expansion of 1.2% and Wholesale Trade at 0.7%. Recent economic performances have bettered the Bank of Canada s forecast, resulting in continued pressure on interest rates. Most forecasts indicate that the January result is in line with expected growth of better than 2.5% through the first quarter of Results for the second, and likely, at least part of the third quarter are likely to be eroded somewhat by global events, and more specifically, events in Japan. In short, the outlook for Canada s economy calls for annualized growth of approximately 3.0% in 2011, after a solid start to the year. HOUSING MARKET HEADED SIDEWAYS Consensus among experts in the sector point to a leveling and/or corrective trend for pricing and activity levels in Canada s housing market. Average home prices are expected to decline in the second half of 2011, with much speculation as to how severe the correction will be. The downward trend is expected to be driven by a rising interest rate trend in the latter half of During this period the Bank of Canada is expected to resume its monetary tightening policy that is likely to be stalled by the imminent Federal election. In so doing, the government agency can continue to balance the need to control inflation without adversely affecting the economic recovery. In January, the Teranet-National Bank National Composite Housing Price Index indicated that prices had increased by 3.9% year-over-year. The result was further evidence that the modestly corrective trend of late 2010 had been short-lived. While rising interest rates will likely negatively impact housing demand in the second half of this year, the extent of any reduction could be offset by anticipated increases in Canadian personal income levels. Economic recovery in the coming months should result in personal income growth, which, in turn, would reduce the impact of rising interest rates on housing demand and prices. In its March housing report, the Bank of Montreal indicated that the ratio of average sale price to personal income had reached 14%, this is above the long-term average, indicating prices had surpassed personal income levels required to support them. During the 1989 real estate bubble this statistic climbed to 21%. A material increase in personal income levels in the second half of 2011 is expected to reduce the rate substantially. Consequently, the demand risk on pricing would be lessened. Therefore as income levels rise, the detrimental effects of rising interest rates should be dampened and Canadian consumers will remain relatively bullish. 5

9 Investment Market Transactions Q1/2011 Office Property Date Price Sq. Ft. P.S.F. Purchaser City 2010 Winston Pk Dr Mar-11 $19.3 M 79,125 $244 Whiterock REIT/ROI Toronto 55 King St W Mar-11 $13.0 M 124,100 $105 Dundee REIT Kitchener 5100 Sherbrooke St W Mar-11 $54.5 M 373,869 $146 Cominar REIT Montreal Bayers Lake Tower 1 Mar-11 $15.0 M 76,016 $197 Cominar REIT Halifax 81 rue Albert Mar-11 $9.8 M 65,333 $150 Cominar REIT Moncton 300, 302 & 306 Town Ctr Bl. Feb-11 $32.5 M 180,000 $181 Khalid Alenazi RE Toronto Dundas Kipling Centre Feb-11 $49.0 M 212,537 $231 Manulife Financial Toronto 1090 West Pender St Feb-11 $19.5 M 77,416 $252 Bentall Kennedy Vancouver 1050 West Pender St (50%) Feb-11 $40.0 M 220,129 $363 West Pender Group Vancouver 2233 Argentia Rd Feb-11 $29.0 M 141,181 $205 Lasalle Inv’t Mgt. Toronto Hys Centre st St Feb-11 $53.0 M 146,981 $221* Northwest REIT Edmonton Fisher Park II Feb-11 $46.0 M 254,601 $181 Cantana Investments Calgary Saskatoon Square Jan-11 $50.0 M 208,775 $239 Dundee REIT Saskatoon Dundas Edward Centre Jan-11 $103.0 M 409,659 $251 Northwest REIT Toronto 400 Cumberland St Jan-11 $38.3 M 179,924 $219 Dundee REIT Ottawa Mississauga Rd Jan-11 $22.8 M 158,642 $144 Whiterock REIT/ROI Toronto Industrial Property Date Price Sq. Ft. P.S.F. Purchaser City 2495 & 2501 Stanfield Rd Mar-11 $16.3 M 247,758 $66 ICBC Toronto th St Mar-11 $18.4 M 185,153 $99 PURE REIT Vancouver 500 Pinebush Ave Feb-11 $21.8 M 122,571 $178 Bentall Kennedy Kitchener Douglas Dale & Springbank Feb-11 $11.0 M 59,964 $184 Canadian Urban Calgary River Way Jan-11 $21.3 M 281,800 $75 Diversified Mgt. Vancouver Express St Jan-11 $40.0 M 178,360 $224 PURE REIT Vancouver 2370 Walkley Rd Jan-11 $29.0 M 316,715 $92 Richcraft Ottawa 200 Westcreek Blvd Jan-11 $13.4 M 86,026 $155 Morguard Toronto 1205 Corporate Dr Jan-11 $14.0 M 129,740 $108 Morguard Toronto Retail Property Date Price Sq. Ft. P.S.F. Purchaser City Carrefour Les Saules Mar-11 $11.7 M 159,138 $73 Homburg REIT Quebec City Millwoods Mainstreet Mall Mar-11 $38.5 M 139,962 $275 Anthem Properties Edmonton Dundas Square Mar-11 $226.0 M 328,013 $689 Bentall Kennedy Toronto L’Hermitage en Ville Mar-11 $26.1 M 45,354 $574 Dayhu Investments Vancouver Place Portobello Mar-11 $73.5 M 504,000 $146 First Capital Montreal 2300 Lawrence Ave E Mar-11 $18.0 M 155,910 $115 RioCan REIT Toronto Place Longueuil Feb-11 $78.6 M 397,600 $198 Homburg REIT Montreal Appleby Common Feb-11 $22.1 M 90,000 $246 Private Toronto 570 Longworth Ave Feb-11 $10.5 M 29,471 $355 ICBC Toronto Tomken Plaza Jan-11 $21.6 M 88,422 $244 First Capital Toronto Multi-Residential Property Date Price Suites P.S. Purchaser City Cherryhill Portfolio Mar-11 $190.4 M 2326 $81,873 Minto/HOOPP London Montfort Manor 550 Lang’s Mar-11 $19.6 M 171 $114,327 Conundrum Capital Ottawa 15 Dundonald St Feb-11 $18.2 M 172 $105,698 TransGlobe Toronto Moncton, Dieppe & Shediac Feb-11 $38.4 M 543 $70,718 TransGlobe REIT Moncton *based on office portion of property only 6

10 Acknowledgements Cited Research Resources In the course of compiling the statistical information and commenting on real estate markets, national, regionally and across Canadian metropolitan areas, we acknowledge the assistance and feedback from the following parties in completing this report: AltusInSite, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, BMO Economics, British Bankers Association, Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Canadian Mortgage Loans Services Limited, CBRE Econometric Advisors, CB Richard Ellis, CIBC World Markets, Conference Board of Canada, Economy.com, European Central Bank, The Federal Reserve Board, Frank Russell Canada (RCPI), The Globe and Mail, International Monetary Fund, Investment Property Databank Limited (IPD), National Post, PC Bond Analytics, RBC Capital Markets, RBC Economics, RealNet Canada Inc., Scotia Capital, Statistics Canada, Torto Wheaton Research, Urban Land Institute, US Department of the Treasury

11 In our business, powerful thinking creates growth. And our results show it. Since its inception in 1975, Morguard has grown to be recognized as one of Canada s largest, fully integrated, commercial real estate firms. With more than $10 billion in assets owned and under management, Morguard provides a comprehensive range of real estate management services, from acquisitions and development to on-going asset management, leasing, property management, research, and valuation services. Morguard has over 1,250 professionals stationed across Canada and in the United States, and provides a platform that has a depth of talent in all areas critical to real estate management. The real estate portfolio under management includes approximately 46 million square feet of retail, office, industrial, and mixed-use properties in addition to 12,600 residential units in markets across Canada and the United States. We are highly experienced, well managed, and well equipped with talent and technology to find opportunities and achieve results.

12 MORGUARD INVESTMENTS LIMITED Powerful thinking. Proven results. HEAD OFFICE 55 CITY CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 800 MISSISSAUGA, ONTARIO L5B 1M MONTREAL OTTAWA WINNIPEG CALGARY EDMONTON VANCOUVER VICTORIA NEW YORK LOUISIANA FLORIDA

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